PRELUDE TO LOVE LOST

THEN – OVERTURE

 

Then, On that December of 2007

It was 14^th day I suppose

I wish I had never sent you the note

And it still restrains my will

Expecting someday you’ll walk to me.

 

Then, on that fateful January of 2008

The 2^nd day of the year

I wish you had never called

I still can’t survive the longing

Expecting someday you’ll run to me.

 

NOW – THE AFTERMATH (COMMISERATION)

 

I wish I didn’t wake

To see the sun another day

Had died before I heard that NO

Angel wings to ride the dark clouds

That meanders over me now.

 

I wish I had died shamefully

There are promises I can’t keep

Glasses I can’t leave hanging

On the shelves of my lost dreams

That dark cloud besieges me now.

 

I wish I had died that moment

Blue, smoked, white and red

As they lay shattered on the floor

Love has lost on me forever

Dark clouds of solitude they are now.

MISUNDERSTOOD

I wake in my sleep

To realities of your lies

All the while trying to explain

Listen,

I am to you not the way I want

 

You see me with glasses

Moulded by your perceptions

Visions of how far you see

Picture me,

I am to you not the way I want

 

Answer questions yet unasked

You have made up your mind

Apprehensions overcast thoughts

Open up,

I am to you not the way I want

 

My love unclaimed fails

An urchin living on stale

Gather what’s forsaken

Wake up,

I am to you not the way I want

 

On the fringes of frailty

Between light and dark

Devils town and angels abode

On the streets,

I am to you not the way I want.

ALONE (Reprise)

It bleeds on my knowledge

Innocuous seemed once the bites of bonds

Leashed to life with what was left of me

Unshackled the manacles of love

I had faith in my waning strength

Ignominy of my soul so I lie low

Driven by shame or inspired by humility

I endeavour on the puzzle more

My destiny as it unwinds

I have faith in my wearing sole

Mirrors reflect the bygone, unwieldy I seemed

It hurts to live again the same sanity

Nettled in the serenity of love

Realize chains are of human make

Fervour withers, but I still carry the faith

LOVE LOST

Walk on shattered glass

Blue, smoked, white and red

All my love there it lays dead

Gather what can be, With hands

that were to keep some promises

 

Blood on your tender lips

From my fingertips

Not that I love you

But need you by my side

And all that blood is

The past I am forgetting

Some are on you, and nothing else I can do

 

Walk on shattered glass

Blue, smoked, white and red

All my love there it lays dead

Gather what can be, With hands

that were to keep some promises

 

All my rippled skin foretells

What will be between you and me

Forever stained and near

But longing will always prevail

And all that love you give

Still my spirit shall senesce

Why stay, is there something you can do?

ALONE

I have what it takes to be myself

I have my spirit that wanders more than me

I have those who love me and those whom I love

 

Yet I walk alone

 

The tenderness of the night gorges me

The heat of the sun burns me

I have got more than what they can give me

 

So I can walk alone

 

I have the penury that makes me hopeful

I have less intelligence that makes me unpretending

I have no knowledge and therefore less ego

 

So I’ll walk alone

When will turned to me for help

Dense was the forest, dark were the shadows,
Will was insolent and brazen were times,
Find my path on beaten tracks.

Difficult were woods but promised a quick ride,
Signs showed at every turn, a snap to my broken hand
Where I stand panting and aching with sores,
The place I wanted to be and the caravan,
Left behind and have passed leaving me.
Think to start all over again and through the woods.

As the beaten tracks are no more for me.
Ticking clocks tells me the time to rest be
When my will dies on me.

FATHER

He looks at me

A forlorn look of greeting

To an unknown traveller

A fake expression of recognition

Just says he empathises

And with a smile he asks

“How are you?”

Holding my breath I say

“I am fine but need some rest

To gather my veins”

And as it fades upon memory

The sadness reminds me

It is time for him to go to bed

And as I get his medicines

He looks at me

Happy of having there

A stranger in his midst

With a true expression of love

Just says he likes me

And with life in his voice asks

“Where are you from son?”

INDIAN GROWTH STORY – WAS IT A BUBBLE?

There is a big question raised on the fundamentals of our economy. For the economy, how soon the financial problem reflects on businesses? The way the news are floating around, it seems the impact is quite instantaneous and pretty fast for the speed of financial world. It is difficult to presume the speed to be so fast. The asset bubble had been happening for quite a few months and in all probability is older than a year.

In my analysis there was a marked shift in value of the companies listed on the exchange. From a period 2004-2007 the growth in most industries had been phenomenal. In other words there was tremendous value in equities beginning 2004. These equities got fairly priced as time went by and there was still value left in Indian equity. The problem precisely began when optimism was overriding all possible practical understandings. From 2007-2008 the value of stocks (not the market price) remained same and in some cases even saw a marked drop. There could be many explanation for this and the one most plausible is the effect of inflation on raw material inputs. The biggest hit was to metal industries. Metals were undervalued when the bull run began a few years back and in spite of the drop in their share prices now, they are still undervalued. Metal had its run in profitability before 2005, up to this period the returns or profits on capital employed was healthy. As capex increased the capital base increased which is yet to show on profitability and therefore explains the lower return on capital.

Right now there is a view that stocks are undervalued. These statement needs lot of introspection. I am unequivocal and say all equities are still not trading below value, even in this falling market there are equities which are trading above value. There are quite a few equities which are trading below their value and these are corporate which had a good increase in profitability through 2007-2008. I have advised my clients to invest in them.

I am still optimistic of our economy and the nascency of this belief is that we as a nation can’t help it and need to boost investments and though the cost is inflation it cannot be held back for long.

Let me give an example, the growth in cement industries has been around CAGR 7% from 1994-2007 and for the same period Heavy goods has grown 25%, Steel and Aluminum at 3% each. Now there is an anomaly here. There is something about the growth not being similar across industries. This leads to imbalance in growth in dependent industries and therefore we find some equities are overvalued and some undervalued. This will be, invariably rectified albeit with strong policy recommendations.

There is demand which is latent and riding the waves of business cycle. The cycle is at low ebb now and will soon take a ride upwards. The current liquidity crunch is hampering growth and could further dampen investor confidence; the fact is we are aware there will be unprecedented growth but the bet is the timing of when the cycle turns and policy changes the government is ready to dare in the times to come.

- by Santosh Shetty

Is Equity still good?

When the markets were rising all analysts concluded, how robust and strong our economy is and how investors are missing an opportunity to create wealth if they were not buying equity. It took a fortnight of incessant fall in various indices and the facts have reversed. Now, there is liquidity crunch, bad loans, defaults, falling demand, rising interest rate, depreciating Rupee. Well, all possible reasons and some even unheard of have cropped up explaining the demise of equity. To call it demise is perfunctory. Yes, a semi temporary but a deep correction could be the right phrase.
The irony of retail investors or rather the dilemma is, he invests when market as risen considerably or sells after it has fallen considerably.

A retail investor with a perspective of more than a year should invest in this falling market, at least at these sub 12000 levels (Sensex) and do not bother even if the markets corrects further down from here. Large investment houses are under pressure to show profits or need revenues; they will ride the volatility. In these attempts of theirs, market might correct further. The long term retail investor should stagger his purchases in smaller quantities and average is buying price at every fall.

Equity of the day: HCL technologies
Last week I came across articles on HCL Technologies being a good buy. It may be, but my evaluation puts the equity at Rs.220 FY09, so see what percentage profits you need and discount it to arrive at your comfortable buying price. I would recommend sub Rs.180 level.

Their acquisition of AXON group would give them new business of enterprise solutions which, is competitive enough and in these times of cost cutting an established player in this segment is a better bet as there is acquired learning and cost advantage. Anyways an opportunity to enter into new product segment where one is week doesn’t mean instant success. So it is advisable to wait and watch how the deal unfolds and how the business scenario is changing. I wouldn’t know the impact of this acquisition on HCL technologies’ books. If the acquired companies ROCE is same like HCL then it is not a big achievement and the price of Rs.220 FY09 is good. But I seriously doubt this given the cost of acquisition. They are already in talks for raising a debt of 400 million pounds (Rs.3400 crore approx). Therefore, a sub Rs.180 level in this falling market for HCL Technologies makes me comfortable.

Santosh Shetty

SUB PRIME or DEPRESSION

This past few weeks had been turbulent for stock exchanges across the world. India had its own share of problems which is a spill over of what is happening in the west – now this is what most analysts are saying and so I do not want to disagree on the spillover effect. A point to ponder is can we pass the blame completely to the sub-prime crisis in the US of A. A little more thinking and I feel a big NO.

The Indian story is as true as it was a few years ago and in fact more robust for the coming years. The financial crisis in the west had a deprecating effect here and it was expected as the FIIs had to average out their capital losses with gains some where or at least protect assets from depreciating further. Even at 12000 levels the FIIs are major not in red in Indian market as they brought the market here in the 1st place from sub 5000 levels and had booked profits intermittently. So they still have cushion to avoid cash losses if they haven’t suffered yet. The Indian Institutional investors are in same situation albeit with redemption pressure looming on their otherwise sales counter. Apart from this, we need to accept that we had reached a point where assets were getting overvalued, which was a supply issue especially lower supply of food grains, energy, industrial capacities, good equities, good assets etc. and oversupply of money. And what we had was an asset bubble. Asset price bubble is not without reason but it was only ahead of time. Therefore, I say this is a time when investment assets are getting rationalized. We might see a same rationalization in property assets too.

The bigger or core crisis is a financial crisis and not a business crisis though the repercussions are on businesses. The prognosis is therefore a financial prognosis and playing with elements which might tweak or imbalance consumer demand could be unpredictable in its direction. A play in interest rates especially a reduction or reduction in CRR requirement could stoke inflation and could push interest down temporarily and over a longer period push it up. Even as a financial crisis it is not a liquidity crisis across markets. Banks have money as the loan disbursement figures show. The cash is not going anywhere especially risk associated assets in this volatile time, it is only breeding no confidence in the system. There is some interest pressure in inter bank call money market now this indicates some banks are in bad shape and requires quick addressing by RBI. The percentage of savings to GDP is still strong. There has been some loss of liquidity due to capital flight. Capital flight form secondary market has a lesser impact gradually as more units/assets are offloaded at lower price.

There are instances across publications where the current crisis in US is compared to the great depression of 1929. This is not right and complete wrong interpretation of the situation and could be dangerous as wrong diagnosis could lead to a wrong prognosis. The 1929 depression was marked by serious fall in demand and fall in employment thereof. Keynes’ antidote was appropriate and unparalleled. Do we need measures to curtail or resolve the crises? If it is to curtail, then a temporary infusion could lend some confidence to the market but recovery could take same time but with less shocks. To resolve we need another round of banking reforms so a larger section of the population is protected and off course regulatory measures are required. The contagion effect of financial adventures in globalized world is quite new for most analyst and central banks, and therefore calls for more research and understanding.

Santosh Shetty